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July/10: The Fed is trapped, and it knows it

Christopher Galakoutis — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 11:49:00 -0400

I would like to discuss the topic of money supply in this months post, and end it with a discussion of gold and a set up we are looking for to get us excited again about certain gold juniors we are looking at closely and may act upon if, as we expect, gold corrects over the course of the next few...

June/10: The Evils of Inflation

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 21:28:00 -0400

Speak to any retiree on a fixed government pension and they would tell you that monthly benefit checks do not buy as much as they used to.

The culprit of course is inflation, and it has been ravaging savers for many decades.

The word "inflation" is overused and mi...

Special Alert -- What a difference a week makes

Christopher Galakoutis — Sun, 09 May 2010 10:23:00 -0400

When May’s post was published last Friday, April 30, there wasn’t a cloud in the sky.

One week later, all hell has broken loose, including a day (Thursday) that some of the most seasoned Wall Street pro’s place in the top 5 wildest days they have ever seen, includ...

May 2010: Bankrupt countries everywhere

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 21:02:00 -0400

What was it about that day in March last year when a intermediate term bottom was reached and the markets started their grind higher? They certainly don’t ring bells at market turns.

There is no predicting these things with any certainty to be sure; what we can try to d...

April 2010: Making sense of what the bond market might be thinking

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 17:12:00 -0400

It has been said that the smartest money is typically found in the bond market, which is many times bigger than that for stocks. I agree, and so I believe it is critical to watch the bond market closely for clues as to what some of the smartest money around the world might be thinking.

...

March/10: The Japanese Deflation Experience has Relevance for the US

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 15:41:00 -0500

I wanted to focus this month’s post on a discussion of the Japanese experience of the last 20 years, and their continuing deflationary environment.

Japan’s economy, stock and real estate markets were the envy of the world in the 1980’s. I distinctly remember a coll...

Feb/10 Issue: Imminent market decline to steamroll rebound gimmicks

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 11:29:00 -0500

...>As discussed in recent posts starting with my “Curtain Call” piece from last October, we have witnessed a steady but unequivocal turn towards anger and negativity in this country. And most deservingly towards Wall Street, which is a good thing as far as we are concerned.

...

Portfolio Update

Christopher Galakoutis — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 15:18:00 -0500

I wanted to update everyone on our portfolio and the current strategy, as well the latest addition from this past Friday: a gold junior will huge potential.

As subscribers will note, we are the most defensive we have been since the start of this letter. Reasons for this have been en...

Gold: Where to from here?

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 22:01:00 -0500

Gold started out 2010 with a bang yesterday, climbing over 20$ an ounce. While nowhere near the $1200+ all time high mark it attained earlier in December, it most certainly inspired confidence in gold bugs smarting after nine consecutive years of gains, with most calling for fresh all time...

Flight strategies to follow exit strategies

Christopher Galakoutis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:39:00 -0500

I held off posting this month’s report in order to see how the rally in gold, which seemed to be a daily event for a couple of weeks, would play itself out.

On Friday, the gold price took one on the chin, in its biggest drop in over a year. Why did this happen? Because o...

Interim Update: More hedging

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:39:00 -0500

It is clear that the market has come a long way from its lows in March. All assets have basically gone straight up, with the US dollar the exception.

But we have reached levels that scream out from a technical point of view. Hitting technical tops, such as 50% retracement leve...

No new credit bubble = Deflation

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:11:00 -0500

We read on a daily basis that companies are raising their prices and/or rates, and that this confirms the inflationary bias in the US economy. One of the latest is Cablevision (link...

Additional Thoughts on End of Inflationary Run

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 09:12:00 -0400

It's been a nice run riding the credit inflation boom most of this past decade. While we didn't buy gold and precious metals stocks right at the bottom in 2001, getting in in 2003 wasn't so bad.

I refer to it as a credit inflation because that is what we have had. ...

Curtain call for Inflationary run

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:13:00 -0400

The collapse of 2008 occurred because the US was clearly on an unsustainable path of excessive consumption and speculation, financed by credit. Debts are IOU’s with repayment terms, which means debtors must pay interest to creditors; borrowers therefore are on the hook for the princip...

Alert: Hedging our investments

Christopher Galakoutis — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:25:00 -0400

On this month’s post I spoke briefly about hedging our portfolios. We have had a nice run since spring and that may very well continue given the inflationary implications of all the money printing; but the market, when you look at the charts, might be getting ready to roll over, accor...

Liquidity-driven rallies don�t create jobs

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 16:19:00 -0400

Outside of minimum wage jobs and Wal-Mart poverty line work, today’s US economy appears unable to create good jobs. It cannot create good paying jobs because the US dollar remains overvalued, allowing for continued profitability for those who off shore jobs. It cannot create goo...

Money printing & Inflation

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 21:06:00 -0400

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the market bounce from the economic disaster of 2008 has been fuelled primarily by inflation and not real economic growth. Like the movie “Weekend at Bernie’s” so humorously displayed, even a dead man can be made to appear...

The summer rally continues

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:31:00 -0400

Last month I made the point that I believed the market would continue to head higher over the near term given everything that is being thrown at the economy and markets stimulus wise.

And that is what we have seen, with the Dow breaking through the 9000 level last week. This was eno...

Standing firm, with some protection

Christopher Galakoutis — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:53:00 -0400

The green-shoots rally has stalled in recent weeks but is it down for the count?

I don’t think so, as a bounce of all but two months (March-April) cannot possibly be it after a horrific multi-month decline (Oct 2007-March 2009) that resulted in intervention of epic proportions.

...

World�s eyes finally wide open

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 29 May 2009 15:11:00 -0400

A lot has happened in the last month or so since our last post, so let’s get right into it.

First off, the overall market has not seen much of any decline, holding firm between the 8000-8500 area on the Dow. Oil has continued to go up. Gold, contrary to what I thought mi...