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March/10: The Japanese Deflation Experience has Relevance for the US

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 15:41:00 -0500

I wanted to focus this month’s post on a discussion of the Japanese experience of the last 20 years, and their continuing deflationary environment.

Japan’s economy, stock and real estate markets were the envy of the world in the 1980’s. I distinctly remember a coll...

Feb/10 Issue: Imminent market decline to steamroll rebound gimmicks

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 11:29:00 -0500

...>As discussed in recent posts starting with my “Curtain Call” piece from last October, we have witnessed a steady but unequivocal turn towards anger and negativity in this country. And most deservingly towards Wall Street, which is a good thing as far as we are concerned.

...

Portfolio Update

Christopher Galakoutis — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 15:18:00 -0500

I wanted to update everyone on our portfolio and the current strategy, as well the latest addition from this past Friday: a gold junior will huge potential.

As subscribers will note, we are the most defensive we have been since the start of this letter. Reasons for this have been en...

Gold: Where to from here?

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 22:01:00 -0500

Gold started out 2010 with a bang yesterday, climbing over 20$ an ounce. While nowhere near the $1200+ all time high mark it attained earlier in December, it most certainly inspired confidence in gold bugs smarting after nine consecutive years of gains, with most calling for fresh all time...

Flight strategies to follow exit strategies

Christopher Galakoutis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:39:00 -0500

I held off posting this month’s report in order to see how the rally in gold, which seemed to be a daily event for a couple of weeks, would play itself out.

On Friday, the gold price took one on the chin, in its biggest drop in over a year. Why did this happen? Because o...

Interim Update: More hedging

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:39:00 -0500

It is clear that the market has come a long way from its lows in March. All assets have basically gone straight up, with the US dollar the exception.

But we have reached levels that scream out from a technical point of view. Hitting technical tops, such as 50% retracement leve...

No new credit bubble = Deflation

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:11:00 -0500

We read on a daily basis that companies are raising their prices and/or rates, and that this confirms the inflationary bias in the US economy. One of the latest is Cablevision (link...

Additional Thoughts on End of Inflationary Run

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 09:12:00 -0400

It's been a nice run riding the credit inflation boom most of this past decade. While we didn't buy gold and precious metals stocks right at the bottom in 2001, getting in in 2003 wasn't so bad.

I refer to it as a credit inflation because that is what we have had. ...

Curtain call for Inflationary run

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:13:00 -0400

The collapse of 2008 occurred because the US was clearly on an unsustainable path of excessive consumption and speculation, financed by credit. Debts are IOU’s with repayment terms, which means debtors must pay interest to creditors; borrowers therefore are on the hook for the princip...

Alert: Hedging our investments

Christopher Galakoutis — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:25:00 -0400

On this month’s post I spoke briefly about hedging our portfolios. We have had a nice run since spring and that may very well continue given the inflationary implications of all the money printing; but the market, when you look at the charts, might be getting ready to roll over, accor...

Liquidity-driven rallies don�t create jobs

Christopher Galakoutis — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 16:19:00 -0400

Outside of minimum wage jobs and Wal-Mart poverty line work, today’s US economy appears unable to create good jobs. It cannot create good paying jobs because the US dollar remains overvalued, allowing for continued profitability for those who off shore jobs. It cannot create goo...

Money printing & Inflation

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 21:06:00 -0400

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the market bounce from the economic disaster of 2008 has been fuelled primarily by inflation and not real economic growth. Like the movie “Weekend at Bernie’s” so humorously displayed, even a dead man can be made to appear...

The summer rally continues

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:31:00 -0400

Last month I made the point that I believed the market would continue to head higher over the near term given everything that is being thrown at the economy and markets stimulus wise.

And that is what we have seen, with the Dow breaking through the 9000 level last week. This was eno...

Standing firm, with some protection

Christopher Galakoutis — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:53:00 -0400

The green-shoots rally has stalled in recent weeks but is it down for the count?

I don’t think so, as a bounce of all but two months (March-April) cannot possibly be it after a horrific multi-month decline (Oct 2007-March 2009) that resulted in intervention of epic proportions.

...

World�s eyes finally wide open

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 29 May 2009 15:11:00 -0400

A lot has happened in the last month or so since our last post, so let’s get right into it.

First off, the overall market has not seen much of any decline, holding firm between the 8000-8500 area on the Dow. Oil has continued to go up. Gold, contrary to what I thought mi...

The eye of the hurricane

Christopher Galakoutis — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:15:00 -0400

A relative calm has come over the markets in the past month or so, following the early March lows recorded by stock markets worldwide.

We have seen a nice run since then, over 1,000 points on the Dow as of this writing. Gold has stagnated around the 900 range, and oil is fighting wi...

A rally with legs?

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 21:48:00 -0400

It is getting interesting in the markets as analysts chime in about this rally that is finally under way – one I was expecting this month as stated in my commentary from 2/24. Namely, the focus seems to be on how long this rally lasts?

I find it quite amusing that folks are tr...

Gold can rally along with the market's counter trend move

Christopher Galakoutis — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 20:48:00 -0500

The markets have been on the decline since October, 2007. Roughly 50% has been taken off the market indexes. That is an enormous loss of wealth, with the ramifications all around us including but not limited to the continued housing collapse and destructive unemployment situation.&nbs...

Foreign savers on the hook, not American debtors

Christopher Galakoutis — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 12:20:00 -0500

I always chuckle when I hear media reports of Americans’ tax dollars going to the Wall Street bailouts and array of stimulus bills. The little guy on the street is interviewed sharing his disgust at the thought of his tax dollars going to bail out Wall Street hucksters and businesses...

Gold & the Dollar: Green across the board

Christopher Galakoutis — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 13:25:00 -0500

The U.S dollar is rallying this morning against most currencies, with the dollar index almost back to its highs for this move. The interesting thing to note is that strength in the dollar is not weighing on gold, itself enjoying a nice up day, as the typical reaction by traders up to now ha...